Posted February 25, 2014
An updated projection by USDA late last week predicts significant price declines for corn, wheat, and soybeans, which may trigger payments under the new farm bill, according to an article by Politico available here. Farm Futures also reported on the story here.
The new data was released as part of a presentation by chief economist Joseph Glauber at USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.
The projections show corn dropping to $3.90 per bushel and wheat falling to $5.30 per bushel. The outlook for soybeans is better, at $9.65 per bushel, but that price “reflects an estimated 24 percent decline from what the department estimated for the current 2013-2014 farm cycle.” The new data also shows that global corn and wheat stocks “remain tight, meaning prices will continue to be vulnerable to supply shocks.”
Since the price projections are lower than the number estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) when scoring the farm bill, the updated CBO score in March is likely to show “billions more” under the revised commodity title.
Exports, however, are strong. U.S. agricultural exports are estimated at $142.6 billion for 2014, $5.6 billion higher than estimated in November. Glauber also said dairy exports have grown and are “expected to grow further over the next 10 years.”
For more information on crop insurance programs and farm bills, please visit the National Agricultural Law Center’s website hereand here.
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